Shell

Shell

Modelling potential market size for a new fuel

Context

Liquefied natural gas (LNG fuel) emits fewer pollutants than current fuels and could help the industry reach its carbon-reduction targets. To use LNG, aircraft and fuel delivery technologies would need significant overhauls. Shell asked Innovia to explore the potential for LNG use in aviation in the next decades.

Approach

We explored the engineering challenge, the fundamental physical properties of the fuel and the business challenge around infrastructure and adoption. We investigated a range of possible drivers and uncertainties to create a novel model to predict market sizes for LNG as an aviation fuel in 2050. We used these to construct a timeline with signposts and barriers to help Shell understand how to approach this challenge.

Impact

We used our holistic capabilities in chemistry, engineering, physics and innovation strategy to examine the aviation world in 2050, a timeframe for which extrapolation of current trends and forecasts is unreliable. Shell is exploring options for the use of LNG in rocket engines. It is refining the value proposition Innovia created and plans to use it to engage partners in the aviation industry.